DECIDES AFRICAN IDENTITY ELECTIONS FEATURED STORY Can Hichilema unseat President Lungu in Zambia’s upcoming election?

By Charles Mafa on July 19, 2016 — Zambia held elections last year to replace Michael Sata, who died near the end of his first term as president. The polls were narrowly won by Edgar Lungu, who is set to face Hakainde Hichilema, his old foe, again in August, in what many see as a two-horse race. File: United Party for National Development Presidential candidate, Hakainde Hichilema (L), casting his vote at a polling station in Lusaka, Zambia, 20 January 2015 Photo :ANP/EPA/Jacoline Schoonees / Gcis. Zambian President Edgar Lungu (R) addresses supporters on May 21, 2016 at the Heroes Stadium in Lusaka as he launches his re-election campaign ahead of polling day on August 11. Photo: ANP/ AFP Salim Dawood File: United Party for National Development Presidential candidate, Hakainde Hichilema (L), casting his vote at a polling station in Lusaka, Zambia, 20 January 2015 Photo :ANP/EPA/Jacoline Schoonees / Gcis. Zambian President Edgar Lungu (R) addresses supporters on May 21, 2016 at the Heroes Stadium in Lusaka as he launches his re-election campaign ahead of polling day on August 11. If one judged by the local and social media in Zambia, one would think that only two candidates were taking part in the 11 August general elections: the incumbent president, Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front and Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND). In fact, the list has seven other candidates on it. However, as was the case in the January elections held last year to replace Michael Sata, who had died in office, the two leaders of the race are garnering most of the attention. Perhaps most notable in the ranks of the opposition are parties such as the United National Independence Party (UNIP) – founding president Kenneth Kaunda’s party, which is now being led by his son, Tilyenji – and Edith Nawakwi’s Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD), which have not emerged as viable alternatives. This means the 2016 elections will be a race between Lungu and Hichilema. A changed – and changing – political landscape A lot has changed since the last election. The amended constitution has radically changed the political landscape. The winning candidate requires more than 50% of the votes cast and the vice president should be elected alongside the president. (In the last election, Lungu narrowly defeated Hichilema in the January 2015 presidential election, with 48,3% of the votes cast, while Hichilema polled 46,7%.) Going into the 2016 polls, there have been defections by key members of the ruling party to the opposition. When Dr Guy Scott, who acted as the country’s president after Sata’s death, appeared at a UPND press conference in March this year, he pledged to support Hichilema in this year’s election. He appeared alongside Democratic Front (DF) leader, Miles Sampa, who struck an agreement to work with the leading opposition leader. Sampa had earlier resigned his government position in the Lungu-led government to form his own party. Guy Scott is not defending his Lusaka Central parliamentary seat Photo: Joseph Mwenda Guy Scott is not defending his Lusaka Central parliamentary seat Photo: Joseph Mwenda If Zambia’s elections had been issue-based, one would not have bothered with these defections,but the country’s political parties seem to be defined by a complete lack of anything remotely resembling ideology. Bereft of any political or ideological beliefs, Lungu must be worried because it is his party that has lost key people to the opposition. Analysts say it is these personalities who will divide the ruling party’s votes. Given these high-profile defections, it might well be Hichilema’s turn in state house. Support isn’t just coming from disaffected members of the ruling party. Disgraced former MMD president, Dr Nevers Mumba, decided to support Hichilema after losing his position in the party to Felix Mutati – who is backing Lungu. It is the first time since the re-introduction of multiparty politics in 1991 that the former ruling party will not field a presidential candidate. Its followers are divided between the ruling PF or the UPND. A renowned workaholic and shrewd strategist who wields great influence, Scott is widely believed to have been the horsepower behind Sata’s 10-year stint as an opposition leader. Dr Guy Scott is not defending his Lusaka Central parliamentary seat, as age seems to have taken its toll on his life. Contrary to earlier speculation that he was going to stand for Lusaka on a different party ticket, it is his wife, Charlotte Scott, who has taken over the mantle from her husband. She is contesting the seat on the UPND ticket. Scott’s troubles with Lungu Scott is likely to influence some members of the ruling party who are upset by the way things have turned out in their organisation. As observers point out, Scott’s troubles with Lungu have been traced to his perceived hatred of the incumbent president from his time as acting president. The battle to succeed Sata, the second of Zambia’s presidents to die in office, was long, often dirty and messy. Holding everything together was Scott, who weathered a protracted, fierce campaign by a vociferous radical wing of his own PF party troops to dislodge him from the acting presidency. Speculation was rife that Lungu would select a whole new team of parliamentary candidates for the ruling party ticket. Lungu, who has already lost Scott, Sampa and outspoken former secretary-general Winter Kabimba, who now heads his own Rainbow Party, has put together a new-look team of parliamentary candidates. Analysts have pointed out that “he [Lungu] could be weakening himself by throwing out efficient members of the party.” “As one senior diplomat remarked, Zambia’s political campaign is bereft of any ideology. It is about personalities.” Many point out that it is not for nothing that Scott reached the second-highest political position under the late president Michael Sata. A renowned workaholic and shrewd strategist who wields great influence, Scott is widely believed to have been the horsepower behind Sata’s 10-year stint as an opposition leader. The defections seem to have affected Lungu’s party. There is no doubt that he has struggled to put together a solid line-up of MPs. The Lusaka seat that was once Scott’s is being contested by Commerce Minister, Margaret Mwanakatwe. She is, to be sure, an amiable woman and efficient banker but without any known grassroots campaigning and mobilisation credentials. So someone who has not held any popular elective position in her life has been asked to run in the most sophisticated constituency of Lusaka. Lungu’s troubles do not end here. There is the case of his Finance Minister, Alexander Chikwanda, and his counterpart at the Ministry of Health, Dr Joseph Kasonde. These two are considered political dinosaurs and are unlikely to be of any value in the 2016 elections campaigns. Not that his bosom friends fare any better. There is also the trusted general at Ministry of Justice, Dr Ngosa Simbyakula, the man who is comfortable in the inner circle of Lungu’s trusted lieutenants but without any experience of being exposed to the vote. In fact, so hapless is he that he even failed to file his papers after arriving late on the day of nomination. Crucial elections at time of economic crisis These elections are crucial for Lungu, who has only been in office for slightly over a year and will have to shake off the negative sentiments created by the economic crisis. Beyond numbers, however, is the crucial issue of the lack of clout and experience among Lungu’s new kids on the green bus. Of Sata’s original cabinet comrades, only a few remain Photo: Joseph Mwenda Of Sata’s original cabinet comrades, only a few remain Photo: Joseph Mwenda Of Sata’s original cabinet comrades, only Vice President Inonge Wina, Information Minister Chishimba Kambwili, Jean Kapata at Tourism, Foreign Affairs Minister Harry Kalaba and Professor Nkandu Luo at the Gender ministry remain. Agriculture minister Given Lubinda is a significant outlier, while Energy Minister Dora Siliya, an import from MMD, is a significant addition. There is also the man holding the powerful position of Defence Minister, Richwell Siamunene, who is likely to lose his position of MP to the party he betrayed – the UPND. Below them is a motley crowd of debutants who have yet to grow their political teeth. Among them are Nathaniel Mubukwanu, who rode on the back of Caritas Mongu to win the Mongu seat in Western Province, and his Mpika counterpart, Malozo Sichone, who is defending his seat in the northern Muchinga Province. They both leaped from advocacy work in the Catholic Church to become MPs. None of these bring an ounce of Dr Scott’s punching power on the national stage. However, some top PF honchos, such as Mumbi Phiri, who is the PF deputy secretary-general, attempted to play down the weakening effect of Scott’s departure. “He is a foolish white man who has nothing to offer the Zambian people,” she said. Whether Dr Scott’s exit has made the opposition stronger and the ruling party weaker is not easy to tell at the moment. As one senior diplomat remarked, Zambia’s political campaign is bereft of any ideologies. It is about personalities. This view was echoed by Dr Simbyakula: “Politics in Zambia are migratory. People migrate from one political party to another. Depending on which way the elections go, you will see more movement.” It is now up to Hichilema and his team to make use of the numbers he has received. However, to defeat an incumbent is not easy, as we saw with the PF’s own struggle to oust the MMD. That required more than just support from the political elite but the church and civil society as well. Hichilema also has to find a way of not making children cry with his serious face and to simplify his message for ordinary people to understand his economic ideas. Choice of running mates The 53-year-old Hichilema, a former cattle herder who turned economist and businessman, has chosen a hard-to-fathom 10-point plan in which he promises to fix the broken economy. He chose fellow businessman Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba, the former Defence Minister and MP in the ruling party, as his running mate. He brings what Hichilema doesn’t have to survive the antagonistic nature of Zambian politics – which sometimes turns violent. Lungu (59) maintained Republican Vice President Inonge Wina as his number two. He has gone for the slogan ‘Sonta Epowabomba’, which means ‘Point at what you have done’. This slogan allows him to cite infrastructure development that his party has implemented over the last five years as a reason for being given a full five-year mandate. It is a slogan that has sometimes attracted scorn, mainly from the opposition who say, “How do you expect us to point at something when we have never been in government?”. Lungu narrowly defeated Hichilema in the January 2015 presidential election with 48,3% of the votes cast, while Hichilema polled 46,7%. The nine other opposition leaders shared the remaining 5%. The race is not likely to be won in the first round. A run-off is thus in the offing and the two frontrunners must brace themselves for more alliances.